TRUMP & NEXT TWO YEARS

A war is never popular, whatever the cause. My former colleague Prakash Nanda, writing in The Eurasian Times, lists how each war since Korea in the 1950s hurt the incumbent United States President. And yet, they have engaged in it.

After accepting a devastating Republican defeat at the elections and acknowledging his war on Iran was partly to blame, President Donald Trump told reporters that the US may have to “destroy” the rest of Iran, adding that people will “know soon enough” if he acts. What can one make of this?

The November 3 polls’ outcome has brought relief in most world capitals. Among the few exceptions, it seems, is Pakistan. We shall talk about that next Sunday.

This election was a referendum on Trump, the person and his policies, and he lost it, earning a pejorative that has become popular: “Donald Lame Duck, President of the United States.” But make no mistake; his remaining years in office will be marked by brinkmanship.

Few imagined such an outcome when he returned to the White House in January 2025. Republican control of Congress was huge. The course changed after the US, along with Israel, launched an attack on Iran, horrifying the world as it eliminated many of its top leaders. He went to the hustings, leaving a defiant Iran, uneasy allies in the Gulf and a world in economic stress.

Just two years ago, Trump won the presidency with 48% of the vote. He claimed an electoral mandate. But his policies at home and abroad, forcing a regime change in Venezuela, imposing tariffs on even allies like India, failing to impact the Ukraine war, and belittling Europe, brought him to what was foregone on November 3.

He asked voters to “pretend, I am at the ballot box”, which they did, and rejected him.

His war on Iran alarmed even his MAGA base. Prices went up and diesel, essential to farmers, became dearer. Some estimates, however, indicate that the MAGA core remains with him.

Trump-2 had alarmed minorities. They got their chance. Like the Israeli Arabs (actually Palestinians) voting in large numbers and emerging as the potential kingmakers, the American ethnic and religious minorities also voted heavily and decisively.

Black Democrats in the southern states turned out in record numbers, helping to carry their party to victory. Hispanic voters, whose support had helped secure Trump’s presidential victory in 2024, swung back to the Democrats. Many migrants, their citizenship under threat, voted against him.

As for Indian Americans, much has already been written about the candidates, winners and losers. Sections that had leaned towards Trump because of his ‘friendship’ with Prime Minister Narendra Modi appear to have changed their preference.

“Now we’re once again back with six Indian American Reps in the House of Representatives in the US Congress. That is an achievement for the Indian American community,” Dr Thomas Abraham, Chairman, Global Organisation of People of Indian Origin (GOPIO) said.

The presence of women in the election was prominent. Most candidates came from a variety of professions — teachers, community workers, doctors, nurses and more and, unlike in India, are not full-time political party cadres and apparatchiks.

America has vociferously become a bit more ‘progressive’. All three candidates Mayor Zohran Mamdani endorsed have won in New York. Kerala-origin Nithya Raman, who studied and worked in New Delhi, is the new Los Angeles Mayor. Abdul El Sayed is the US’s first Muslim senator, despite Trump raising Islamophobia. It marked the defeat of a divisive agenda.

El Sayed’s cryptic message to Vice President J.D.Vance: “JD Habibi, there is this delicious irony in the fact that you’re constitutionally obligated to swear me in January.”

‘Progressive’ is a popular term in India and many developing nations. The American Progressives are a left-leaning political faction within the American Left — primarily aligned with the Democratic Party — that advocates for social and economic equality through government intervention, regulation, and social programs.

America has also gone a shade ‘darker’. Keisha Lance Bottoms is the first Black governor in US history. This is a reversal of history: Blacks were brought as slaves from Africa. It is also a tribute to America’s vibrant democracy that has enabled it, though nearly 150 years after slavery ended.

A day before the midterms, a message emanated from Antigua and Barbuda in the Caribbean in the US’s neighbourhood. King Charles III expressed ‘sorrow’ for Britain’s role in slavery, including transporting them to America. Only symbolically, though, the two events rewrite mankind’s chequered history.

America’s own record of supporting Israel got rewritten when Trump, considered the most pro-Israel, announced on election day that the US would stop supporting Israel with $four billion annually.

Read that with Benjamin Netanyahu’s uncertain return to power and the rising demand in the US to stop military support to Israel that has enabled a pogrom of Palestinians in Gaza.

But it will not be easy. The Jews are very powerful in the US and Europe. Also, any drastic scale-down could alarm Europe and impact the other big war in Ukraine.

Will a weakened Trump fight Iran? Likely, till he can find a way to extricate America. But he is not alone. America has lost, or quit, many conflicts. The US evacuated from Afghanistan, replacing the Taliban with the Taliban, and quit Iraq only recently, both after 20 years.

What is in store at the US Congress? The Democrats will seek to frustrate Trump’s agenda and launch investigations into his administration. A historic third impeachment attempt could also be on the cards. But it will be difficult to rein in a second-term president with no further election to contest. This is his nature and record. Worse may unravel in American legislatures, as he navigates his presidency.

Democrats can block Trump’s legislative agenda and launch investigations, but they lack a two-thirds majority to override a presidential veto.

What does it mean for India? No guarantees that trade, visas, and other things will improve. But at least, unlike the entire Trump team complying with his wishes and amplifying his hot-and-cold approach, bilateral ties will get debated.

The Democrats have won on huge Indian-American support, however small in number, some of it restored because Trump played cat-and-mouse games with India. Democrats, judging from their record, know it.

But they have their own weaknesses. More than the Republicans, the Democrats must learn humility and function as a united party. It is at present a leaderless party. Unless they focus on winning in 2028 now, their present success will be meaningless.

With Trump cut to size, and possibly minus Netanyahu, one can hope that the world will be better off in the days to come.