ITS OPEN OR SHUT FOR STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Has nearly a four month old war in the Middle East, surrounding 167 kms long and 39 to 97 kms wide Strait of Hormuz (SoH) ended ? With “signing” of an , Interim Deal , such impression is going around. However, those aware of actual circumstances, are unlikely to be misled by the professional war mongers.

May be, for the first time one physical and one electronic signature was resorted to, to put an end to long and fierce conflict between two warring groups. Even Pakistan Prime Minister, the so called “Guarantor” signed on dotted lines of the peace deal, electronically.

He has been reported rushing to Switzerland alongwith Field Marshall Munir to take part in now uncertain talks. Vice President J.D.Vance who had cancelled his visit on June 20 after sending an advance team, has now been reported to have arrived in Switzerland for the talks.

Iran too had expressed its non commitment to take part after closing SoH yet again owning to continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon. A fresh one has led to death of eleven persons in Lebanon.

But in a turn of events once again Iran’s negotiators have also landed in Zurich. It has been reported by Iran that prior to closing SoR again, 55 ships, three of them with Indian flags had passed through. President Trump, in the meanwhile has warned Iran in respect of its lack of firm commitment.

Israel the Crucial Factor

Israel, bent upon settling scores with Hezbollah and Lebanon on the one hand and Hamas on the other, may continue to have more reservations. Afterall, they are not parties to the MoU signed between U.S.A. and Iran.

Iran has insisted that Israel must withdraw from large areas of South Lebanon, they are occupying.The MoU being silent on it, merely talks of Lebanon’s ‘territorial integrity’.

According to Associated Press, Israel would continue to have presence of its troops in Lebanon whereas Hezbollah has taken a stand to resist and confront Israel until full withdrawal by Israelis is ensured.

Issue May Get Further Complicated

U.S.A.after some time ( when mid term polls approach) may lose interest and the problem in this part of
World is bound to get further complicated. One would fail in keeping count of number of Cease Fires in last decade between Israel and Hezbollah and between Israel and Hamas.

Other Militant Groups Can Not Be Ignored

While talking about Hezbollah, Lebanon and Hamas, one should not rule out presence and threat perception of Iran’s militant proxies- the Houthis of Yemen and Shiite militias of Iraq. Both U.S.A. and Israel should not forget that Hezbollah has got largest private Army in the world having over 1.25 lakh troops apart from all the latest arms and ammunitions and that the outfit also has a seat in Lebanon’s Parliament. Invariably, a representative of their’s becomes a Minister. Meaning thereby, Hezbollah is different from any other militant outfit. And such outfits together with Israel come in the way of ensuring peace and amity in the whole of West Asia.

Geneva Talks ?

Incidently, the present paper work between U.SA. and Iran has been called a “Memorandum of Understanding”. A more formal agreement has been promised to be signed in Geneva on any day. It may take more time also depending upon whims and fancies of President Trump and fresh tricks or moves of Iran over entry and exit of ships in SoH region.

As we are aware, the current agreement was originally to be signed by the U.S. Vice President, J.D.Vance and his Iranian counterpart in presence of non-descript Prime Minister of Pakistan or his representative. But in his own unique style, President Trump decided to do the honours himself, physically, at Versailles Palace, Paris while having G-7 Dinner with President Macron and others.

How President of Iran was persuaded to give his consent, same has not been divulged or ascertained as yet. Afterall, the deal calls for Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched Uranium and waives U.S. backed sanctions on the country, immediately allowing Iran to sell its oil freely in a major concession from Washington, as per some details made known by both the countries.

Qatar Not Egypt Continues To Be Important

Why only Pakistan is continuing to play the role of a key mediator especially when Qatar too is going to become a party to original ceremony in Geneva. Based on U.S. inputs, Pakistan has hailed President Trump and Iran Supremo, Mojtaba Khamenei for restoring peace, at last in West Asia.

It has been further learnt that subsequent to signing of a proper Agreement, complete reopening of SoR will be possible, followed by lifting of Naval Blockade by U.S.A. It has been already confirmed by the U.S. Vice President.

This step is likely to push gas and crude prices down. No one can give an assurance, however.

Role of Mediators

Peace process has not been possible only by bi- lateral negotiations. It was also negotiated through mediators that included Pakistan and Qatar, who initially ensured a two week Cease Fire agreement on April 8. Cease fire was later extended till completion of talks.

Needless to say, shipping movements by all countries have been severely disrupted since February 28 and same has led to unthinkable energy crisis in many countries, including India. A stalemate of this kind also led to raising of prices of food grains and fertilisers apart from crude oil and helped push inflation in U.S.A. to 4 % or further beyond. But President Trump appears untouched, undeterred.

According to one viewpoint, U.S.A., the aggressor alongwith Israel has now forced Iran to sign a peace accord that is seen to be advantageous to Iran.

A 60 day negotiation period has been spelt out for ” unresolved issues”, including Iran’s nuclear programme.

Passage through SoH will be toll free for 60 days BUT the deal does not preclude fees after that.

Iran, in the meanwhile, has not opened the Strait fully, nor has it stopped insisting on issuing permits for passage through SoH, presumably on payment. It has made it clear that peace has to be achieved through mutual respect while it remains “committed” (?) to progress and regional co- operation.

In the ultimate analysis, the interim deal with U.S.A. will enable Iran the benefit to sell its crude oil freely again. In what way Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, U.A.E. Bahrain etc would gain or lose, is not yet known ? They will think twice before getting closer to or supporting any Iranian move.

Fitting Reply By Giorgia Meloni To Trump

Soon after high voltage G-7 talks in Paris with signing of ” agreement ” by President Donald Trump ,Trump’s behaviour caused a controversy, presumably over a photo which reportedly offended Giorgia Meloni, Italian Prime Minister. Resultantly, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has cancelled his planned U.S. visit after Trump’s controversial remarks about P.M.of Italy.

Former has reportedly claimed that Meloni had “begged” him for a photo opportunity during recently concluded G-7 summit. Trump’s comments have been considered unbecoming of the high office he is holding. He has claimed that he agreed to have a picture with her because ” he felt Sorry for her”.

It has been learnt that such a statement has sparked outrage across Italy’s political spectrum.

Observers feel that Meloni has displayed remarkable courage and self respect through a video message. According to her, Trump has made false statements and that she has already objected to senseless attacks from him.

She deserves to be praised as she has refused to be belittled. Gradually she is proving to be a tough leader vis a vis many other head of states.

(The author is former Chief Secretary, Sikkim. Views are strictly personal)