TENTACLES OF WAR ALL OVER MIDDLE EAST

History repeats itself. It has been said and has been found true also. But when Uncle Sam in fresh & ferocious authoritarian ‘Avatar’ desires, history is repeated with an aim to change Geography.

Less said about this obstinate incumbent of White House, is better.

Ever since U.S.A. assumed the imperialist role of U.K., several regimes have been targetted, a few have maintained distance, while others did not surrender but allowed their territory for U.S. air and naval bases. Eight Gulf nations have subjugated under this ‘coveted category’.

Those who do not toe the line, lose their leaders one after another, some are still losing.Some may be the likely targets.Who can predict ?

Change of Modus Operandi

Earlier toppling games were happening in broad day light. Now killings and kidnappings happen at the dead of night or very early. Hijacking or kidnapping of Venezuelan President together with his spouse is one such gory example.

Hit & Run To Hang On

It’s not only hit & run, U.S. forces also stay back to pursue their long term vested interests.They get land allotted for the temporary bases which ultimatelyty become permanent.

Even after massive setbacks leading to vacation of such bases in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan etc, U S. A. maintains over 19 Air and Naval bases in a number of Middle East countries.These have a gigantic number of 40,000 troops. They are, in addition, eying for a base in an island of Bangladesh.

Current War in Retrospect

If we look at 12 day June 2025 war between Israel and Iran, fresh war spearheaded by Israel with active backing of USA has continued on 18th day also. Tempo may have slowed down but there is no indication of stoppage.This time eight nations have been attacked after a gap of eight months but altogether twenty nations have been roped in, directly or indirectly.

Multi-pronged attacks by Israel against Iran, Lebanon and Hezbollah was expected but in the changed situation, Iran, while retaliating, has hit very aggresively in the first round. Middle East Islamic nations were taken aback.

Silence of Hamas and Houthis of Yemen, staunch backers and beneficiaries of Iran, so far, can not be understood. They may, however, open up, soon, in view of their known hatred both against Israel and U.S.A.

While confirming current U.S. links of eight nations, Iran may not have forgotten inroads made by Israel in having diplomatic ties with atleast two of them.

Major Loss in UAE

Even those countries of Middle East having historical, cordial and diplomatic ties with Iran have turned against it. Iran is, thus, left with only a handful of supporters, such as, Turkiye, Russia, China and possibly North Korea. Ukraine has lately agreed to supply missiles to Iran but on strict monetary terms. In the process, losses of U.S. may not be much but nations, such as, UAE have lost their unquestioned regional leadership, crucial air hub, business position and above all, image. This is apart from attacks and immobility of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and many other airports and attacks on iconic structures such as Burj Khalifa and many hotels. How U.A.E. met the expenses of over twenty thousand stranded foreigners is beyond imagination ? Charity beyond a point is not advisable.

Saudi Arabia’s biggest Ras Tanura oil refinery has been attacked, Doha and Kuwait have been also attacked many times.

U.S. Navy’s Central command, its 5th fleet based in Bahrain, a U.S.site for Air Defence Assets in Saudi Arabia and another U.S. Air Base in Abu Dhabi may again face threats. Iran claimed on the second day that only their ‘scrap’ missiles and drones were used till then.

More Deadly Missiles Ready

Looking at the success of Iran thus far, one can imagine what was to happen when long range hyposonic and supersonic missiles & drones were to be used .Their range varries from 1300 kms to 1750 kms. It may or may not be true, but some of them may attack cities in U.S.A., admitted even by Trump in a talk.

A clip of long underground tunnel storing facility in Iran has been already released to social media to to create psychological scare if not impact.

Loss Of Ayatollah S.A. Kheimeini

Unfortunate assassination of Ayatollah Sayed Ali Kheimeini on 1st March was no doubt a major success both for U.S. and Israel. On the contrary, it was a vital loss for Iranians who were used to his rule for 37 years, despite recent months of Civil disobedience. He was not only political head since 1989, he was also a temporal head like King of U.K. or King of Bhutan.

You do not kill such a high ranking person, however, bad or good he may be, in the holy month of Ramjan.

Iran has taken over a fortnight to name his son Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei as his successor.

Firm Commitment Seen in Trying Times

Even when succession was a slow affair and command structure both in Iranian Army and Air force was weakening, mature signs of resilence emerged leading to re-alignment of forces. Never duplication or clash of role of regular Iranian Army vis a vis more powerful IRGC was seen.

After a long time heads of Saudi Arabia and UAE have decided to talk. Further, lately, UAE and few other countries have made it clear that their territory will not be used for U.S. naval and air attacks against Iran. If it actually materialises, it will be major blow to the evil designs of President Trump.

Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports are not only vital links of Asia with Africa, Europe and America, these are also cosmopolitan business, tourism and hospitality hubs. Dubai, the biggest transit hub of the world with 1200 flights a day has been severely impacted upon getting used to sirens and alerts. Presently, UAE is bearing all expenses of over twenty thousand stranded hotel occupants but it has to end some day.

Safe Stand of Europe

Though Turkiye has come out in open in favour of Iran, response of Egypt, many Muslim countries of Asia, Africa and Central Asia are awaited.

Though France has not opened cards so far, Germany, Spain and Italy at last, have expressed inability to take side of U.S.A. P.M. of U.K., however, learning from Iraqi experience, has stated that they donot intend to join the offensive “for now”, however, U.S.A. was being allowed to use British bases in the Middle East, but only for limited purposes.

Stand of Government of India

It is not understood why P.M. Modi visited Israel 40 hours ahead of start of war and took more than 36 hours to convene a meeting of Cabinet Committee on Security. India had to take a swift stand in the interest of 10 million Indians in the Gulf and thousands stranded in Universities, construction sites and hotels.

Adverse Effect On Supplies

Also India has to depend on supply of crude oil through Strait of Hormuz (SoH) upto 15 % of its total requirement. Reports of closure/partial opening of SoH not only is impacting supply of crude oil but also of CNG & LNG during the current busy wedding and tourist season. Even if a vessel is permitted to pass, news of 13 attacks on ships between 1st and 11th March makes the situation tense.

A number of eateries, hotels, paying guest facilities and restaurants are being severely affected. Rates of Cylinders too have sky rocketed. Rumours about alleged shortages too add fat to fire. Not only Indians hoard but also join such a bandwagon through social media.

Diplomatic Initiatives

P.M. Modi has spoken to a few approachable Middle East heads including President, Iran already. I wish he also speaks to ‘friend’ B.Netanyahu to apply the much needed break to mayhem.

India has condemned attacks by Iran on several Middle East countries and has called for de- escalation, regional peace, security and stability. No condolence message, however, was issued after the demise of Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei. Nothing has been said also about joint attacks of Israel and U.S.A. nor shelter given by a few nations. India, perhaps, has no option but to play safe.

Oil & Air Link Most Vital

Coming to oil requirement, giving up claim on Russian supply under personal pressure of Trump, not of U.S. Government, India should not have distanced itself from old faithful Russia. Now that supply through SoH is being impacted and there being no guarantee of oil from Venezuela, price of POL in the country is bound to rise.International price of oil per Barrel has already gone up beyond USD 118. More shortages of POL, LPG and LNG may emerge. All this may have cascading effects on key sectors of domestic economy. Many eateries, hotels, road side joints and hostels have already been shut and weddings are being severely impacted “in the Season”. Rumour mongers are at the peak of their profession.

TO SUM UP

As per utterances of Trump, current war may go on for four more weeks (?) as U.S. plans to destroy Iran’s missile and nuclear programme. “We can’t leave early as we got to finish the job”, ‘Godfatherly’ Trump has declared.

While over 1200 Iranians have died thus far, including165 innocent school children, over 600 have been killed in South and East Lebanon. Casualties on the side of U.S.A. and Israel can not be found out.

Tehran, Dubai and Beirut coming under rapid fire of Israel has also led to pushing out more than eight lakh persons out of their homes.

How are we supposed to carry forward international trade and flights to various destinations under such trying conditions?

It may not be a Third World War, per se, but something close to it is already taking place. If Russia and China also join, picture may be more grim. Iran is going great guns even under a relatively weak leader but Netanyahu, despite his adverse health indicaters, looks to be a beneficiary so far. SoH continues to be closed/ partially open. However, bombing of oil infrastructure at Kharg island by U.S.A. is going to be a major blow to power and hegemony of Iran.

(The author is former Chief Secretary, Sikkim)