Cheap Weapons & Expensive Consequences: What India Must Do

Drones and Autonomous Systems Are Rewriting Warfare

War has always been shaped by the tools available to fight it. What is unprecedented today is not merely the sophistication of weapons but their affordability. The modern battlefield is now no longer dominated exclusively by expensive platforms and elite militaries. Instead, it is increasingly influenced by cheap, smart and expendable systems that place destructive power into the hands of both states and non state actors as well. Small drones, loitering munitions, autonomous ground vehicles and robotic systems have dramatically altered the cost calculus of war. A few thousand dollars can now threaten assets worth millions. This inversion of cost and effect is transforming warfare in ways that carry profound implications for India’s security.

The shift is structural and irreversible. Cheap weapons have democratised lethality. They reward innovation, mass and adaptability rather than sheer platform superiority. The lessons emerging from Ukraine, Gaza, the Red Sea and the Armenia Azerbaijan conflict converge on one conclusion, that is, the future battlefield will be crowded, transparent, persistent and unforgiving. For India, facing a technologically ambitious China and a militarily adaptive Pakistan, this new reality demands urgent recalibration.

The Collapse of the Traditional Cost Equation

For decades, military power rested on capital intensive platforms. Tanks, fighter aircrafts, warships and missile systems symbolised strength. While these platforms remain relevant, they are, however, no longer decisive by themselves. The proliferation of cheap drones has exposed their vulnerabilities. In Ukraine, we have seen how inexpensive quadcopters have destroyed main battle tanks. In the Black Sea, drones forced a powerful Navy to retreat. In the Middle East, non state actors have used low cost systems to strike air bases and shipping lanes.

The strategic implication, therefore, is unsettling. The barrier to entry for effective military action has fallen sharply. Where once air power and armour were monopolised by states, today a small group equipped with drones, commercial sensors and basic AI can disrupt operations, impose costs and shape narratives. Deterrence, therefore, can no longer rest only on possession of expensive platforms. It must also account for resilience against attrition by cheap systems.

China’s Robotic Push and the Pakistan Vector

China stands at the forefront of this transformation. We are aware how China has invested heavily in artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous warfare. Chinese defence industry is producing unmanned aerial vehicles, loitering munitions, robotic ground vehicles and autonomous logistics systems at a large scale. More importantly, these systems are designed not only for the PLA but also for export.

Pakistan has emerged as a key recipient and testing ground. Over the years, China has supplied Pakistan with armed drones, surveillance systems and electronic warfare capabilities. The next phase is likely to involve ground robots, autonomous sentry systems and AI enabled battlefield management tools. For Pakistan, these systems offer an asymmetric way to offset India’s conventional superiority. For China, Pakistan serves as both a strategic partner and a live laboratory.

The concern for India, therefore, lies not merely in the technology itself but in the doctrinal synergy between China and Pakistan. Cheap autonomous systems supplied to Pakistan could be employed along the Line of Control to help in infiltration roles and in terror support operations. Robotic sensors, armed drones and automated surveillance could reduce Pakistan’s manpower burden while increasing its capacity for provocation under the nuclear threshold. This creates a persistent grey zone challenge for India.

The Compression of Time and Space

Cheap autonomous weapons compress decision making timelines. Drones provide real time surveillance. AI assisted systems process data faster than humans. Swarms can overwhelm defences through sheer numbers. The result is a battlefield where concealment is difficult, reaction time is minimal and errors are punished instantly.

For India, this has implications across the spectrum. Along the northern borders small drones can observe movements, identify patrol patterns and cue artillery or missile fire. Along the western front, drones can support infiltration, drop weapons or conduct attacks on military and civilian infrastructure. In the hinterland, non state actors can employ commercial drones for reconnaissance and intimidation.

The psychological impact is equally significant. Persistent aerial presence erodes morale and creates constant pressure. Soldiers and civilians alike operate under continuous observation. This changes how units move, concentrate and fight. The side that adapts faster survives.

From Platform Centric to Mass Centric Warfare

India’s traditional approach to modernisation has been platform centric. The focus has been on acquiring high end aircraft, tanks and ships. While it is necessary but this approach is considered insufficient in the face of threat posed by cheap weapons. What is now required is a shift towards mass centric capability. This does not mean numerical superiority in troops alone but mass in sensors, shooters and decision making nodes.

India must develop and deploy large numbers of low cost drones for surveillance, logistics and strike. Infantry units must organically possess drone swarms, counter drone systems including pocket jammers and electronic warfare tools. Armour formations must integrate unmanned scouts and decoys. Artillery must be tightly coupled with drone based targeting. The objective is not to replace platforms but to surround them with layers of inexpensive and expendable enablers.

This approach will surely complicate enemy’s planning because it will increase survivability. It will also restore deterrence by signalling that India can absorb and respond to attrition without strategic paralysis.

Defending Against Cheap Threats

The defence against cheap weapons cannot only rely on expensive interceptors. Shooting down a five to ten thousand rupees drone with a multi crore missile is unsustainable. India needs to invest in layered counter drone architecture. This includes electronic jammers, soft kill systems, directed energy weapons and rapid fire guns. Artificial intelligence (AI) must be used to detect patterns and cue responses automatically.

Also, border infrastructure, air bases, ammunition depots and critical civilian installations require integrated protection. Equally important is the training of soldiers and internal security forces to operate in a drone saturated environment. Camouflage, dispersion, deception and mobility must be relearned to effectively transcend into the age of persistent surveillance.

Industrial Transformation and Technological Sovereignty

Cheap weapons demand cheap production. India’s defence industry must move away from boutique manufacturing towards scalable, modular and rapidly upgradable systems. Startups, private industry and public sector units must be integrated into a continuous production ecosystem. Speed of iteration matters more than perfection.

At a deeper level lies the issue of electronic dependency. Most autonomous systems rely on advanced chips, sensors and AI algorithms dominated by a few global players, particularly the United States. India cannot afford long term dependence on others in this critical domain. Indigenous semiconductor capability, AI research and embedded systems manufacturing must be treated as strategic imperatives. This is not a short term effort. It may take decades. But without it, India risks strategic vulnerability in a future where wars are fought as much by algorithms as by soldiers.

Doctrine, Training and Leadership

Technology without doctrine is only a noise. India’s military education and training systems must evolve rapidly. Commanders must understand multi domain operations where land, air, cyber and space intersect at the tactical level. Young officers must be empowered to make decisions in fast moving environments.

Exercises must simulate drone swarms, electronic disruption and robotic adversaries. Lessons from Ukraine and Gaza must be institutionalised and not merely observed. Adaptation has to be continuous.

Conclusion

Cheap weapons have changed the process of war by making the battlefield more lethal, more transparent and more unpredictable. For India, facing a technologically assertive China and an opportunistic Pakistan in the neighbourhood presenting itself as a use and throw tool for both China and US, the challenge is immediate and manifold.

But yet this is not a story of vulnerability alone. It is also a story of opportunity. India possesses no dearth of talent, the industrial base and the strategic clarity to adapt. What is actually required now is urgency, integration and sustained commitment. The future will belong not to those with the most expensive platforms but to those who manages to combine mass, resilience and innovation. In the age of cheap weapons, preparedness is no longer measured by what a nation can buy but by how fast it can think, produce and adapt. India must ensure that it stays ahead of this curve as hesitation will be costlier than defeat. We need a very focussed approach with experts in the top hierarchy.

India, therefore, requires a well thought out government funded and closely monitored industry and indigenous heart of electronic systems. This may take a couple of decades to gain dominance but this will certainly prevent India’s ultimate dependence and contain dominance by external players in this domain.

[Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd), PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM(G), VSM, – is a former Army Commander of South Western, Eastern and Central Army Commands. Views expressed are author’s personal]

(This piece was first published in the Eurasian Times)