Uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz (SoH), a narrow channel, approximately 30 miles wide but deep and wide enough to ensure passage of the largest of crude oil tankers, has been in the news ever since the current war began between the U.S.-Israel combine and Iran on the last day of February. Troubling a large section of humanity, it has already entered its 25th day. Ground force is not being put to the test; rather, air and naval forces have occupied a prominent role. Missile and drone power is all-pervasive. Even from Hezbollah, the world’s largest and most dreaded private Army.

SoH is a naturally formed, vital and narrow waterway that separates two large bodies of water, the Gulf of Iran from the Gulf of Oman, with the UAE being close by. Straits are formed naturally, unlike canals that are made manually. Both are crucial for the movement and sustenance of the global economy, since time immemorial.

A few of straits need dredging to ensure smooth passage of large ships, such as, Palk Strait between India and Sri Lanka. Famous straits, apart from Hormuz, are Gibraltar, Malacca, Bab-el-Mandab, Bosphorus and Magellan. Of these, Malacca is the widest & biggest. Among the notable canals are: Suez, Panama, White Sea, Baltic Sea, Grand and Corinth.

Critical To Global Energy Security

All the waterways linking important land masses, oceans and seas, being historical, occupy a prime place in the ambit of trade & commerce. These also hit the headlines whenever Geopolitics takes a murky and undesirable turn or when a power centre takes some extreme interest and step, as taken by a combination of the U.S.A. and Israel, currently.

SoH has become very critical to global energy security, as on its North coast lies Iran and on the southern side lies Oman. Oil as a weapon has been used many a time. Who can forget the oil crisis of 1970 or the flexing of muscles by the OPEC countries in 1973-74?

Importance of Middle East Oil & Gas

As Gulf countries have sizeable crude oil reserves, all of them have to be kept in good humour by the biggest consumers of the World, namely, the U.S.A., China, Japan, leading European countries, India, South Korea, etc. Presently crude oil is very much available, but its smooth passage is becoming a bone of contention between two warrying group of countries.

Is India Affected?

It is not only Crude oil but the supply of LPG and CNG is also stopped or impacted, leading to a tense situation on roads and in homes. As far as India is concerned, 15% of its crude oil requirement is met from the Middle East, and 60% of its demand for LPG is also being met from the Gulf. 40% was produced locally. In view of the Gulf crisis, now supplies are being obtained from Russia, Canada, Norway and Algeria.

As panic buying and hoarding is being reported from 34 crore plus kitchens of India, it is perhaps anxiety not shortage which is dominating. The situation seems to have improved after days of tension in the first week.

It may be noted that this route accounts for 20 to 25 % of the global crude oil supply. 69 % of crude oil goes through SoH to China, Japan, India and South Korea. While the U.S.A. collects barely 7% of its oil supplies through this region.

Neo Imperialism

The policy of imperialism, which the USA assumed from the UK at the end of World War II, has always guided or misguided its foreign and economic policies. While espousing the cause of economic imperialism, it could enter the domain of political imperialism and has gone to the extent of territorial imperialism too. Its policies invariably lead to the exploitation of resources and labour from dominated or captured regions. These ultimately lead to global inequality, either through military force, economic dominance or political coercion of the countries that may not be as rich and powerful.

V. Lenin, Patriarch of the then Soviet Union, was very right in saying that imperialism was the highest stage of Capitalism.

The U.S.A. has the coveted position of being the biggest oil producer as also biggest consumer of P.O.L. in the world. But it wishes to protect its resources for posterity, obliquely, for arm-twisting when “chips will be down”.

The present restricted supply of oil and gas has created substantial supply delays, raised expenditure on shipping and containers, which in turn have a negative bearing on world energy prices. The barrel price of crude oil, which was once 85 USD, is now costing over USD 120. A hike of 8% was recorded by March 12 itself. Even if President Trump, after igniting fire, said that the surge in oil prices will be short-lived, but he can never be trusted.

Now that more and more of oil tankers are being detained or hit even, further decline in oil transit can be more dangerous than what it looks at present. After all, 20 to 25 % of crude passes through SoH. From a level of 20 million barrels per day in 2024, presently only 12 million barrels are passing in 130 ships on a daily basis at the moment.

There are reports that many ships have been compelled to pay additional amounts to Iran for smooth passage. Now Iran has openly announced a toll. It being improper, will be contrary to maritime rules and regulations, says International Energy Agency. They fear that current deadlock between U.S-Israel and Iran is going to be worse than Oil crisis of 1970.

Midget Sub Marines To Be Used?

Fresh speculation is about the threat of the use of Midget submarines by Iran. These small vessels, weighing 120 to 150 tons, operated by one or two or sometimes up to six persons, were used in World War II. With no on board accommodation, these are capable of laying mines inside sea which will stop or blast passing tankers over shallow sea beds. Due to depth attained and their storage in hidden under water facilities, these are not normally tracked by the satellites. Reportedly, Iran has twenty-three of these submarines.

With no signs of any Ceasefire or cessation of hostilities, SoH has become a choke point and an unwanted irritant. Billions of US Dollars are at stake. Power centres of the developed and developing world are not only thinking but also looking forward to the end of the war. It is felt that viable solution will emerge only when negotiations are held across the table. It is doubtful if talks in Pakistan involving Egypt, Turkiye and Pakistan will make any dent. The U.S.A., incidentally, will be represented by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, son-in- law of President Trump.

Will Protests Make An Impact?

It is well known that President Trump, before his ” overseas adventures” regarding Panama, Canada, Cuba, Ukraine, Venezuela, Greenland and Iran, does not bother to take Congress into confidence, forget about taking its consent. On many such occasions, protests and rallies have been organised in his country as well as outside. But this time these have happened after a long period of waiting, even when U.S. mid-term polls are around the corner. Further, no one believes the false claims of Trump that Iran’s Air Force, Navy, Defence Systems, and top leadership are all finished. If this was the case, how were two important towns of Israel bombed severely a few days ago or how their missile nearly reached the U.S. and U.K. base of Diego Garcia, a distance of 3800 kms.?

Demonstrations against last Israel-Iran war in June 2025 and plight Of Palestinians did make sizeable impact in many places.

As regards the current unjustifiable indulgence of the U.S.A., Chuck Schumer, a U.S. Senator, has rightly stated: ” Americans do not want war. Concentrate on problems at home not overseas. What is the rationale ? No one has any idea.”

Predicament Factor

Donald Trump, not P.M. of Israel, looks very tense and tired of the long war. But he keeps himself away from any confession or introspection. His recent actions have further widened the gulfs in the beleaguered Gulf region.

His safe statement that those who use SoH are responsible for ensuring smooth passage of ships, therein. After all, Americans may not have forgotten the setbacks they had in this area during the 1980 war between Iran and Iraq.

His unilateral announcement for a five-day halt on attacks on key infrastructures of Iran and ” complete resolution of hostilities ” shall have no meaning as no one, not even NATO collectively or his European allies individually, trust him. He claims to have spoken to a “most respected top leader” of Iran, but Iran was quick to issue a denial, and its official Radio confirmed.

M.Rezaee, supposedly a top officer of Iran, has very candidly stated: “Conflict will only end if the U.S.A. pays full compensation for damages and completely withdraws from the Persian Gulf”.

TO SUM UP

Quiet Russian, Chinese and North Korean aid to Iran NOW have become open secrets. Therefore, following safe or guarded statement /comment of China may be seen with interest :

“Hope U.S.A. will exercise ‘wisdom’.Must prevent impact on World economy”.

(The author is former Chief Secretary, Sikkim. Views are strictly personal)