India’s Neighbourhood Policy Must Change In View Of Emerging Developments

by Alok K. Shrivastava, IAS (R)Jan 6, 2026Blogs0 comments

Well, it’s election time in our neighbourhood : Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal. Fed up with slowing down of economy, bouts of violence & unrest and a bleak future for youth, common voter is looking for much needed change and relief in these countries.

MYANMAR

Three phase election process has begun in Myanmar on December 29 in 102 townships out of 330. Second and third phases will take place on January 11 and 25. A political party backed by ruling military junta has claimed to have taken a commanding lead in the first phase.

Bangladesh will go to polls on February 12 while in Nepal voters would exercise their franchise on March 5.

Taking off from Myanmar, the country is in election mode after a gap of almost six years, as last election exercise was conducted by country’s Union Election Commission, under the clutches of all pervading Military Junta in February 2021.The National League For Democracy Party, led by Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, since banned, had swept the polls but was not allowed to rule. As if this was not enough, more than half of the political parties of that era donot exist now. So it may turn out to be another farce of elections under direct command and control of Min Aung Hliang, head of military junta.

While P.M. Narendra Modi has given him requisite message during S.C.O. Conference in Tianjin in September, Antonio Guterras, U.N. Secretary General has expressed the view that elections will not be free & fair in Myanmar.

While military has not only grabbed power over the years but has been also able to consolidate the same with the tacit understanding and assistance of China, It is no longer a protest or a tirade, it is a case of prolonged Civil war in a country that is perpetually stuck between instability and natural calamities.

In short, it suffers from following challenges:

• Out of a population of 51 millions, 21 millions are in need of financial assistance.Thus, it is one of the poorest in Asia. As per U.N.O, its a case of most under funded aid operation. Still World Bank has projected a 3% growth of its GDP which can not be believed,

• Country faces one of the worst humanitarian crises.Details about last food crisis are still not available due to tight lip policy of ruling junta. Same is the story about devastation caused and rehabilitation given during massive Earthquake in March, 2025,

• Drug trade continues unabated, rather it is thriving,

• Those who can not bear repressive policies of rulers are compelled to take refuge in India and Bangladesh, thus becoming a prolonged burden in new habitats,

• Freedom of expression is not allowed.Press has been completely gagged in Myanmar.

NEPAL

As announced by Justice (Rtd) Sushila Karki headed interim Government recently, Nepal is slated to go to polls on March 5, 2026 for 275 member Parliament. For 165 seats, there will be direct voting while 110 will be elected through a proportionate system of voting. As many as 64 parties have submitted names of 3424 candidates. Number of parties appears fairly large as Gen Z had compelled key parties to withdraw from any contest during the period of unrest.

Looking into past, after the ouster of Monarchy in 2011, though people of Nepal have tasted democracy, they have not experienced political and economic stability. The erstwhile kingdom has seen 14 Prime Ministers in 17 years, average tenure being eight to ten months. As no party has been able to complete a full five year term, prospects for a long term economic planning and development remain only on paper. It has led to money being confined to a very few families and business houses.

A sincere attempt was made by Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, former Finance Minister & P.M.and a few good intentioned politicians, who were members of the Constitution Committee, to frame a Constitution in May 2008 but fate of its overall impact remains unknown.

Though developments and violent protests, sparked by a social media ban, led by “Gen Z” youth from September 8, 2025 were good intentioned, history has shown that this kind of spontaneous uprising generally does not lead to stable changes. No doubt, Nepal was in shambles for almost a week, events that emerged were sufficient to give a clear signal against nepotism, financial instability and the corrupt and opportunist politicians. Old elite are, therefore, destined to be replaced by emerging forces and trust deficit between leadership and electorate will have to go at once. Also high rates of unemployment and inflation shall have to be reduced.

Incidentally, K.P. Sharma Oli, last P.M., whose erratic policies led to last uprising, has been summoned for clarifications by a Commission of Inquiry to probe alleged use of force during September 8-9, 2025. At least 19 youth had sacrificed their life in Kathmandu and total toll reaching 77, nation wide.

Question mark is whether polls be conducted as per schedule ? If yes, will new Government move away from influence, if not grip of China ? People to people contact with India may also have to be fine tuned in view of centuries old religious and cultural links between people of two countries.

BANGLADESH

One of the poorest countries of Asia again, it has been in turmoil since August 5, 2024 ouster of the then P.M. Sheikh Hasina and her subsequent refuge in India.Though an interim Government headed by a Nobel laureate Economist Md. Yunus is at the helm of affairs, presumably with blessings of “deep state”, violence against Hindus and other minorities started at the time of departure of Hasina has got perpetrated. It has increased manifold with the rise of hate mongers like Sharif Osman Hadi, who subsequently lost his life.

Nominations for February 12, 2026 General Elections have been filed but Hindus continue to be targetted by nasty taunts, attacks and killings. One can not forget a long spell of harassment caused to Buddhist monk Chinmoy Krishna Das towards the end of 2024. Due to sealing and strong vigil at the international border, many of suffering Hindus can not now infiltrate into India.

2900 INCIDENTS

As per one disclosure of the Ministry of External Affairs, more than 2900 incidents of such violence have taken place during the Interim Government under Md.Yunus. Future of two Crore Hindus (comprising 7% population) is thus in a dilemma. Some of them are not giving up.

With a view thereof, they have formed Bangladesh Minority Janata Party (BMJP). Though it may contest all 300 seats of Jatiya Parishad (National Parliament), it is hoping to win about 40 seats but in pursuance thereof, it needs to have alliance with other parties.

Political situation in Bangladesh seems to have heated up with events following

(a) murder of Sharif Osman Hadi, leader of Inquilab Manch on December 12 and five Hindus thus far,

(b) return of Tarique Rahman son of Khaleda Zia on December 25, after a gap of 17 years and

Although 80 year old Khaleda was ailing for long, she had contributed to the process of restoring democracy in Bangladesh, subsequent to a few spells of Army rule, including one led by Gen. Ziaur Rahman, her husband. Head of till recent dormant Bangladesh National Party (BNP), she was three time Prime Minister who distanced herself always from India. Even when she was declared serious, she did not respond positively to the offer of P.M. Modi for medical treatment.

For the first time in four decades, late Khaleda Zia and her arch rival Sheikh Hasina, five time P.M., will not be facing each other. Though latter’s Awami League has been barred from contesting forthcoming polls, shadows of both women leaders, however, may be seen very much in a latent manner.

Incidentally, Sheikh Hasina has tweeted that as the first Woman P.M.of Bangladesh and for her role in the struggle to establish democracy, Khaleda’s contribution to the nation were significant and will be remembered.

IMPETUS TO NEIGHBOURHOOD ?

Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Late P.M., drawing from his years of rich experience and wisdom had once stated ” You can change friends but can not change neighbours”. It is very apt and meaningful in the current scenario of South Asia when Myanmar is having military rule for ages and Pakistan is struggling with its Army dominated if not led democracy.Its Army Chief holding high ranks of Field Marshall and Chief of Defence Forces, latter as a result of a constitutional amendment. What is more worrying is his growing proximity to the U.S. President, his extended tenure and legal immunity from prosecution upon completing his term.

Nepal and Bangladesh have had their own share of crippling disturbances. Hopefully post-election scenario may be positive.

Sri Lanka, a country having 22 million population had tasted sustained disturbance and civil war during March to May, 2022. It became so strong that President Gotabaya Rajpaksha, the P.M. and Finance Minister not only had to resign and leave the country for a while but they lost their residences as well in massive fires.

Maldives had also political hi-cups once or twice. Both, however, continue to have Chinese influence.

Among India’s neighbours , only Bhutan has been enjoying fruits of peace & amity, political and financial stability, albeit under a King.

Having run through current election infested scenario in Myanmar, Nepal and Bangladesh, one may suggest that:

• India needs stable, peaceful and sovereign neighbours, away from influence of China,

• As regards Bangladesh, India should change its stand from being Pro-Awami League TO Pro-Hindu. It may help the latter. Expecting that sense of neighbourliness will grow once things settle down, may be far away from reality,

• Old elites should give up tendency to stick to power to make way for Youth,

• Soul searching among political parties may lead to democratic discipline. Cycle of vengeance has to go away. Rulers should have patience to listen to the masses,

• Educated Youth may raise voice against corruption, mismanagement, poor economic prospects, unemployment and inflation from time to time.

For further solidifying India’s NEIGHBOURHOOD POLICY, stability among neighbouring countries is very much called for. There should be no harm in reviving SAARC for such a purpose.

TO WIND UP

We may quote statement dated January 2 of S.Jaishanker, External Affairs Minister at Chennai :

“Countries that deliberately and persistently sponsor terrorism, can not expect the benefits of good neighbourly relations. However, India was willing to work constructively with the neighbours that demonstrate cooperation and restraint. We have a right to defend our people. Idea of neighbourliness MUST be reciprocal”.