Retreating Monsoon Or A Fresh Bout of Climate Change ?

When it rains we are fond of saying “Rain Rain Come Again”. But when Monsoon fathered rain is in a mood to retreat, it may not be a comfortable situation all the time. Extreme rain related developments in recent weeks in Jammu & Kashmir, H.P., Uttarakhand and West Bengal point in that direction.

Before we throw light on what led to sudden flood or cloudburst situation in a few northern parts, Mumbai and Kolkata recently, it may be perhaps necessary to have a look at the maximum temperature scenario in the month of September during the last four years.

Although with a recording of 741.4 mm, highest rainfall in North India has happened since 1950, actually in 1988 it was 813.5 mm of rain.

Despite record rainfall, this September has turned out to be warmer than last year with higher humidity and mercury levels. Till 19 September, average maximum temperature was 34.2 degrees as compared to 33 degrees last year. It has been learnt that a dry spell from September 7 to 17 has pushed the maximum temperature up.

Maximum temperature in September was 36.3 degrees on September 16. Compared to it, the maximum temperature in 2024 was 37.4 degrees on September 24, 2024, 40.1 degrees on September 5, 2023 and 38 degrees on September 1, 2022.

September not only marks transition from hot and humid weather to relatively cool days, Monsoon also begins retreating. But till recently during the current year, there was no such indication or else recent spells of devastation and submergence incidents would not have happened.

As per IMD, Monsoon may have withdrawn officially from NCR and states of North India, M.P., U.P., U.K., H.P. and J & K. on September 24, (a day ahead of its usual schedule) but the impact left has been very horrifying.It would take a lot of effort and detailed brain storming and review before situation becomes normal.

It may be recalled that the withdrawal of Monsoon this year was the earliest since 2002, while in 2024, it withdrew fairly late on October 2nd.

Quantum of Rainfall

Since June this year, the National capital has recorded 905 mm of rainfall, a surplus of 38%.

Annual average rainfall was impressive at 774 mm,While North West India recorded 29% surplus at 774.7 mm. Talking of Delhi, it recorded 107.1 mm in June, 259.3 mm in July, 401.1 mm in August and 136.1 mm in September.

Was It A Special Monsoon ? No doubt, this Monsoon was special but September 2021 was wettest in 141 years as per the India Meteorological Department. Yet human sobbing and cribbing was seen and the same has been experienced so far in September, 2025 as well.

Cloud Bursts

Against all indications and rumours, devastation at Dharali was not caused by a Cloud burst as rain during the fateful day had not exceeded 35 mm and a week after also it was recorded at 45 mm.

But heavy rain in several places in J & K, was something unusual for September.

Similar was the situation or the devastation caused in Dehradun area twice in less than a month. Shastradhara situation was simply terrible and unthinkable.

There was heavy rain in Kolkata on September 23. The city had one of the highest spells of rain at 251.4 mm in just two hours on September 23 when 10 people were killed and 9 were electrocuted in the state capital and adjoining areas. It was highest single day rainfall since 1986 and sixth highest in the last 137 years. Water logged roads, submerged neighbourhoods, suspended metro & train services, cancellation of flights, sudden closure of schools etc all HAPPENED. Knee to waist deep water in many colonies was witnessed.

Overflow, rather release of a large volume of water from Farakka barrage could have been also one of the causes.

Damage & devastation was so much that the State Government had to advance Durga Puja holidays for state run educational institutions. The CESC was blamed ,further by the state Government for 9 deaths. C.M., West Bengal has promised a job for one member of each of the bereaved families. It is felt that politicising the issue will lead us nowhere.

The deluge actually attributed to a low pressure area also left many Pooja pandals submerged, thus leading to a severe impact on annual pomp and show and feelings of bon homie during the Durga Puja.

IMD has warned of more rainfall in Kolkata area and many parts of Jharkhand in coming days.Hence apart from damage, congestion and inconvenience due to unseasonal rain, Durga Puja spirit in southern West Bengal and Jharkhand is bound to be impacted.

In order to sum up, it has to be discussed and reiterated as normal temperatures generally increase in this month, despite being away from rains but close to the approach of winter. People being in a hurry also fall sick due to change of weather.

Shall we call it Climate Change ?

(The author is former Chief Secretary, Sikkim)