FRESH CRISIS IN MIDDLE EAST: EMERGING PATTERNS

Middle East is in the midst of a fresh crisis. Unwarranted situations are not the handiwork of local or regional leaders. These are instigated, influenced and very much supported from outside. “Operation Rising Lion” was launched by Israel with tacit U.S. support, targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. While their Air Force pilots targeted military or strategic assets of Iran, Iranians stuck to their habitual policy of terror by bombarding residential areas, hospitals and civilian centres in general. Any power producing weapons of mass destruction should not claim that these are for peaceful, medical, scientific and civilian purposes.

U.S.A.has willingly or unwillingly inserted itself into a war it had in mind but it spent decades trying to avoid. It was a matter of surprise that very recently President Trump during his visit to Middle East , dashed to three important capitals but purposely avoided touching Israel or Gaza. Latter would have been a necessity in view of ongoing, acute humanitarian crisis.

Also his joining hands with new ‘tainted’ leader of Syria and having a deal with Houthis was unwarranted. Latter was not to the liking of Israel as they have been more than hostile to them all through. Perhaps these things happen in war and love. These may continue to take place.

Conceiving and creating an underground infrastructure for a nuclear programme was going on by Iran for many years. In addition to Pakistan, it was determined to achieve this ‘distinction’ in the name of Jehad. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear programme was peaceful. But U.S. President and Israeli leaders have argued that Iran could quickly assemble a nuclear weapon.

HOW ISRAEL & IRAN LOOK AT EACH OTHER ?

Benjamin Netanyahu(Bibi) has opened a new front by stating that nuclear armed Iran was their biggest existential threat. Iran’s ‘possession’ of nuclear arms makes it most dangerous regime. He apprehends that the first target of nuclear Iran will be Israel. Besides Israel has accused Iran of harboring genocidal intentions. Hence, Israel has sought sanctions and military action against Iran to stop it from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Countering it, Iran has accused Israel of perpetrating a genocide in Gaza Strip. Iran has a numerical advantage in terms of man power and land forces. It also has an edge at sea.

But Israel’s air superiority is undeniable. Iran has 231 fighter jets, which being old, are difficult to maintain. Israel has 314 fighter jets. Israel also has scores of nuclear weapons but it refuses to be a signatory to NPT. No inspection by IAEA takes place. Such acts in defiance of international law shall have to be checked, forthwith.

ROLE OF NON STATE ACTORS

Houthi rebels of Yemen, the supporters of Iran, have launched attacks on Israel by latest missiles and armed drones, demanding an end to invasion and continued occupation of Gaza Strip.They have seized or bombarded several merchant ships and naval vessels in Red Sea and received hundreds of air strikes by U.S.,U.K. and allied forces. This action may be also linked to Israel- Iran proxy conflict.

A Cease Fire was reached between Houthis and USA during the Middle East visit of Trump but it collapsed after recent strike of USA on Iranian nuclear sites.

Talking of statistics, during the period October 2023 to March 2024, Houthis have attacked over 60 vessels in the Red Sea.Their persistent threat in Suez Canal region is also not ruled out.

U.N. Security Council has adopted a resolution condemning attacks perpetrated by the Houthis but their nuisance over Red Sea region goes on unabated.

It may be noted that even when President Trump was present in one of the capitals of Middle East recently, Houthis did attack Tel Aviv by missiles.

MISERIES MULTIPLY IN GAZA STRIP

Israel is in habit of being in fighting mode all the time. Even at the peak of their war against Iran they had the audacity to attack and kill scores of Palestinians in Gaza Strip.

A few days ago Israel has halted aid supplies to Gaza for two days to prevent them from being seized by men of Hamas. Palestine Clan leaders, however, have clarified that some masked men on aid trucks were protecting aid, not diverting it to militants. Bibi has made it clear that Hamas has to be prevented from taking control of aid. As it is customary for clans to help in providing security to aid convoys, director of an umbrella body for local NGO’s has stated that aid was being distributed to vulnerable families.

A statement made by R.Mnsour, Palestinian Ambassador to UNO is significant in this regard. He has stated that since Israel broke Cease Fire in March 2025, over 1300 Palestinian children have been killed and 4000 have been injured. Thus Barbarism was going on. Children suffering from starvation was unbearable. In many places, mothers were embracing their motionless bodies.
Who will tolerate such a horror ?

FRESH ISSUES WITH HEZBOLLAH

It is in everyone ‘s knowledge that functionaries of Mossad had organised killing of Hassan Nasrollah in November 2024 and soon thereafter, Hezbollah had agreed for a Cease fire with Israel.

However, it is in the interest of Israel that Hezbollah is now confined to Lebanon and kept in check.Their Air Force, therefore, was directed to carry out intense air strikes a few days ago on mountains overlooking a southern Lebanon city in an attack that their Military said, targetted underground assets of Hezbollah.

Air strikes were in two waves on the mountains over looking Nabatiyeh. Bunker buster bombs were used by the Air Force. Israeli military sources said that its fighter jets struck a site used by Hezbollah to manage its fire and defence system in the area. As it was a part of a significant underground project, Israel could score a good victory.

WHERE IS SUPREMO OF IRAN ?

On the eve of just concluded Israel Iran war as also through the 12 Day bitter war period, Iranian Supremo for 35 years, 86 year old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was conspicuous by his absence. There was a speculation that he was in a safe hideout, away from Iran. Besides, the Iranian President too was not very visible. Question of P.M. does not arise as the country has no P.M. since Mir-Hossein Mousavi completed his term in 1989. Iran’s Defence Minister Abbas Araghchi was quoted off and on in the media.

Ayatollah appeared through short videos thrice on 10th, 18th and 26th June. Through one of these he declared that Iran was not going to surrender. But it appears he was persuaded to agree for a Cease fire on 24th June. Through a video message dated 26th June he stated that Iran would respond to any future U S. attack by striking U.S. bases in the Middle East. He added that any attack on Iran would come at great cost. Iran had attacked U.S. base at Qatar after U.S. had joined the Israeli strikes. Ayatollah, however, downplayed U.S.strikes on three nuclear sites saying that U.S.President had exaggerated the impact of strikes.

UNILATERAL CEASE FIRE (C.F.)

It is an open secret that President Trump announced truce in the first half of June 24, before Israel and Iran even formally agreed. He appeared furious at Israel initially. He is reported to have laid out an elaborate time table, stating that Iran will start the C.F. and upon the 12th hour, Israel will start it. Further, upon the 24th hour, an official end to the 12 day war was be ‘saluted’ by the world. During C.F., each side was to remain ‘peaceful and respectful’ (?), he added. He claimed that he had first convinced Iran for C.F. and thereafter, ‘enthusiastically’ encouraged Israel to do the same.

One national daily has rightly reported that absence of details of C.F. did add to confusion about sequence of air strikes and counter strikes that took place in the hours after announcement.Trump did not publicly specify a start time. Time differences too need to be looked at. Iran’s time is half an hour ahead of Israel’s time, which is 7 hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time. But its true that each side had an inclination for C.F, may be for reasons of fatigue.

Further, as missiles were fired from both the directions, actual response from Israel was reported to be limited and symbolic. Iran, on its part said its 14 missiles fired in the ” final minutes” at military and logistical centres in Israel were in retaliation to Israel’s pre- dawn bombardment and only before the C.F. was meant to begin.

FATEH MISSILE

Iran’s use of Fateh hypersonic missile weighing 350 to 400 kgs and having a range of 1400 kms, was a major decision since it is reported to be 15 times faster than sound. It is a multi headed monster. It might have been used in hitting and destroying important buildings ,such as, International Airport, Defence H.Q., Stock Exchange, Mossad H.Q., Bus Terminal, an old Science Research building, power grid in Tel Aviv etc.

NEGOTIATIONS SOON ?

Now that its relatively quiet on war front, the bone of contention between Israel and Iran- nuclear programme of Iran, is making news. Iran does not appear to be ready to restart negotiations with the U.S., as it feels that issue has been complicated by U.S. attack on their three nuclear sites, namely, Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan. Earlier it was learnt that no damage, whatsoever was caused by B2 Stealth Bomber that had dropped more than a dozen 30,000 pound bunker buster bombs.With the passage of time, Iran has conceded that ‘serious damage’ was caused. Rafael Grossi, IAEA Director too has termed it ‘enormous damage’.

Officially it was learnt from Tehran that time for diplomacy was over and that Iran had every right to defend itself. Condemning the attacks, Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian has said “This aggression showed that the U.S. is the primary instigator of the Zionist regime’s hostile actions against Iran”.

Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, however, has stated that no agreement has been made for resuming the negotiations and that American military intervention had made the matters difficult.

TO SUM UP

After watching the developments from far, five countries-Russia, China, North Korea,Turkiye and Pakistan have extended support to Iran. A further escalation of situation is not ruled out. That may turn more human settlements into rubble & dust.

Though Iran was consulting Russia since day one, it may not do much owing to its engagement in Ukrain. China will only extend support from behind the scenes. Stand of North Korea will be always dicey. Turkiye may come to Iran’s rescue mainly in the name of religion. Finally, what kind of support a weakened and disheartened Pakistan can extend, is any body’s guess.

Like Russia-Ukrain war, NAKBA(catastrophe) in Middle East is bound to affect economies of many countries. Rise in price of crude oil is not ruled out. At the same time, Iran has to explore new buyers for its crude oil, other than China.

Shutting of 3 kms wide Strait of Hormuz by Iran has been desired by the country’s Parliament. Located in the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, the Strait serves as an important passage for Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. Even its temporary closure may disrupt China’s energy needs, apart from impacting global trade, thus giving rise to shortages and inflation.

(The author is former Chief Secretary, Sikkim)