ARE ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS CREATING HAVOC ?

Internet information tells that WEATHER is the atmospheric condition at a specific point of time, such as, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or yearly. It can change from minute to minute ,hour to hour, day to day and season to season. Its examples could be: rain, snow, cloud, wind, thunder, storm and hail.
CLIMATE, on the other hand, describes the typical weather over a long period of time, such as, a few years or more. Climate changes slowly over years, centuries or millennia. Its examples are: snow in the North East in January, hot & humid weather in South East in July, rise in sea level, melting Glaciers, shifting seasons etc.
Weather: Hide & Seek ?
If one was to elucidate the current unreliable and perplexing weather, one would surmise that it was playing ‘hide and seek’ for quite sometime. In view thereof, neither one can put on heavy woollens nor resort to ‘take off’.
Lord Sun, the ultimate source of energy does not show face everyday. When one is lucky, expected glaze and warmth misses out when you get exposed to Sun barely for an hour or two.
Light to normal rain on three to four days can bring down Air Quality Index (AQI).
Once difference of 24 degrees vis a vis 4 degrees was experienced but one day, this difference was only 3 degrees between maximum and minimum temperatures.
Factors Causing Deterioration
Deterioration over the last seven days could be attributed to a combination of very dense fog, low atmospheric mixing height, weak winds and unfavourable meteorological conditions.
According to Weather Scientists, these trap pollutants closer to earth surface.Further, they add that situation has worsened because emissions from local sources have added to stagnant air, thus pushing level of pollution to higher levels.
Forecasts of EWS of Govt of India for NCR indicate that AQI was unlikely to improve before 7th or 8th January and that it would remain in ‘very poor’ category.On 6th January, it was the same old story.
Power of Sun
Sometimes it appears that one will be getting the advantage of Sunshine till its setting time. After all, the power and glow of Sun is incomparable, something difficult to measure. Warmth emanating from it can easily fail a heater or a blower. Further, basking in Sun provides a sort of eternal energy and ability. It is a rich source of Vitamin D also.
Global Warming Leads To Climate Change
Warming of Earth surface happens when Carbon Dioxide traps Solar radiation in the atmosphere. Changes in global climate caused by irregular and unsustainable human activities are already affecting many weather and climate extremes, practically in every region across the planet. Human beings are responsible for creating conditions for changing climate by emitting greenhouse gases and pollutants from industry and businesses, growing use of chemical fertilisers, release of Fluorinated gas from refrigerators, air conditioners, air purifiers and heat pumps, transport and homes or due to vast changes in land use pattern.
Global climate is heating up day by day by 1.5 to 2 degrees every year. Nevertheless, sometimes one gets a false feeling as if “Global Cooling” instead of warming is taking place. Whatever it may be, it is added by self interest, intolerance and ignoring the interest of others. Moderate to heavy fog hovering around, one comes across, every day in Delhi and parts of North India. Rain on three to four days did bring down pollution levels but the chill too seems to have intensified in a big way. It is well known that winds of any speed improve a city’s pollution levels. Western disturbance impacted Delhi between 22nd to 23rd December and again between 26th to 27th December. Rain was to lead to more improvement in pollution levels. But less said would be better.
Air Quality Index
Air Quality is classified into six categories: Good, Satisfactory, Moderate, Poor, Very Poor and Severe. Dropping of air quality leads to decrease in wind speed. When wind is slow, dispersion of pollutants becomes hard as pollutants keep moving in a circulatory motion.
AQI during the period 17 December to 24 December in Delhi was above 400.It was 433, 445, 451,429, 370, 427,417 and 466, respectively. Meaning thereby, it was severe or very severe. It was an alarming situation, altogether, but none of us BOTHERED.

Importance of Forest
Forest becomes a key determinant in such tough circumstances.
In India, there has been slow reduction in forest cover. But the same has now increased to 25% as per India State Of Forest Report, 2023. Between 2013 and 2023, it increased by 8.3%. However, decline has been recorded in some states of North East, such as Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram.
With a total forest area of 1,483 Sq.kms, Delhi has the maximum forest area among the mega cities. Mumbai comes next, followed by Ahmedabad.
Degradation of forests, however, is becoming an area of tremendous concern. Unless attended to on priority, it may cause unimaginable havoc.
No Escape From Biting Cold
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines a ‘Cold Day’ when the maximum temperature is at least 4.5 degrees below normal, even when minimum temperature is below 10 degrees. Over twenty days, no respite from cold has been experienced which becomes, at times, bone chilling, muscle tearing and nose watering. It causes diseases, such as, Cough, Cold, Bronchitis etc.
With detection of three patients In India, HMP Virus seems to have entered India.
Whole of North India is shivering as cold wave has further intensified and more and more of snow is falling over the hills of J & K, H.P. and Uttarakhand. In such situations people from plains rush to the hills to have a feel of snow. Their unusual fun, frolic and running around, at times becomes dangerous. Landslide is also not ruled out even in snow infested conditions but accidents also happen due to skidding of vehicles in the highway or their sliding into a Gorge.
26th December was a very cold day in Delhi when day temperature plummeted to 14.6 degree and lowest minimum temperature was 4.5 degrees on 16th December. On a very cold day, difference between maximum and minimum temperatures is MINIMAL.
Rains In Winter
Talking of rain, total quantum this year has reached levels not seen in three decades.Last time such intense December rains were in 1997. It may bring more cold but it is considered very good for winter crops. According to IMD forecast, on 28th December, more rain was expected. Relief from pollution definitely due to rain has to be welcomed.
Rain in the morning ,that too in winter, however, catches school going children and office goers or residents off guard, thus hampering their study and work schedules and leading to brief snarls. IMD had issued Yellow Alerts for cloudy sky and light rain for 6th January. This spell was to lead to cloudiness and soon after ,wind speeds were expected to pick up. These cold North Westerly winds were to impact temperature leading to drop in both maximum and minimum temperatures. Daytime temperatures were also going to hover around 16 to 17 degrees while night time lows were to range between 8 to 9 degree Celsius. But upto 5 p.m. neither rain happened nor there was drastic reduction in fog.
National capital went on to log zero visibility for the fifth consecutive day on Monday. It was over three hours between 4 and 7.30 a.m., impacting flight and train operations again. The Vice President of Skymet had also opined that intensity of fog was expected to reduce marginally on 6th January.As per a Scientist of IMD, fog conditions on 6th January were far better as Delhi was assisted by a’ Fog Hole’ formed over the city. It was due to local factors and heating, specific to Delhi. Moderate to dense fog was likely to prevail over Delhi on 6th January again, according to IMD.
As mercury drops further, orders are issued to shut schools every now and then. At times ‘hybrid schooling’ is also permitted, which increases the burden of teachers, especially women teachers. Cold day together with dense fog reduces visibility and makes morning travel extremely unsafe for children below 12 years of age. Authorities, while issuing orders do rightly mention that safety and well being of students was their top priority.
Water logging too takes place which increases the burden of people, apart from causing jams and accidents.
On 28th December, Delhi received the highest single day of rain (41.2 mm) since 1923.But the capital could also breathe its best air in nine years.
Cold Wave Conditions
According to IMD, North Westerly winds were likely to start impacting the region leading to a sharp dip in minimum temperature as they bring cold wave from mountains. IMD had also forecasted clear sky from 30th December onwards but same has not happened at all.
At present biting very cold conditions are gripping North India especially in the states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Western UP and NCR. IMD says that cold wave conditions were to continue for one more week. Such winds provide a chilling effect during the day even if Sun shine graces us. Fresh Westerly disturbance from 2nd January was likely to slow down the strong North Westerly winds again. This too has not happened.

NOIDA Situation
NOIDA holds an important place in NCR ,not only in its gigantic growth potential but also as a clean, planned & vibrant satellite city to the national capital. It has recorded its best and lowest annual average AQI since 2017. Thus favourable weather gave NOIDA its best year since 2017. Air also improved when compared to permissible limits of PM 10 and PM 2.5 particulate matter. The official data also indicates that District experienced only two high pollution “severe” days in 2024, which is the lowest since 2017. Same was five in 2023.
NOIDA, however, still has irritating issues of dust, large number of construction sites, dumping yards, vehicular emissions and many instances of garbage burning which need to be acted upon priority. Resources like manual cleaning of streets, mechanised road sweeping machines and water sprinklers have to be used in a big way. The city, along with Ghaziabad also badly needs more Air Quality Monitoring Stations as compared to huge numbers in Delhi.
First Week Of January, A Very Challenging Phase
Delhiites woke up to a thick blanket of fog between 2nd and 6th January as visibility dropped down drastically. Hence, flights, trains and vehicular traffic were disrupted in several places in the N.C.R. More than 300 flights were delayed on 3rd January due to very dense fog over Delhi airport for two hours between 6 a.m.to 8 a.m. As regards trains, 43 of them were delayed due to poor visibility.
On 4th January, over 350 flights and 24 trains were delayed. Average delay time of flights was 41 minutes but so far none of the flights have been diverted.
On 5th January again over 300 flights were delayed and 18 were cancelled.
Trains too were impacted in the early hours.51 trains were delayed by over 30 minutes in the entire region.One can imagine the plight of train passengers and relatives who go to pick and see them off.
WORST FOG SPELL
4th January saw season’s worst fog spell in terms of intensity and visibility which was Zero for nine hours between 11.30 p.m. on 3rd January and 8.30 a.m. on 4th January. Its cascading effect was felt for hours. Also there was not even a remote indication of any rain, though sky had remained cloudy during major parts of the day.
Drivers of vehicles and Cyclists faced challenges as visibility dropped sharply in the early hours of all the above mentioned five to six days.
Explaining this phenomenon, IMD Scientists are of the view that fog was happening as a result of cold morning temperatures mixing with high moisture and pollutants in the air.
AQI was recorded at 318 (very poor) on 3rd January which rose to 378 on 4th January and fell to 339 on 5th January. Again it fell to 315 on 6th January. AQI of NOIDA, on the other hand, was 365 and 236 on 5th and 6th January respectively. Hence slight improvement does take place but but it is back to square one situation again. AQI was likely to be very poor till 7th January as conditions will remain adverse for the dispersal of pollutants. As there has been improvement in air quality, commensurate fall is expected in maximum and minimum temperatures. On 6th January, minimum and maximum temperatures in Delhi were 9.7 and 17.6 degrees respectively. As 6th January was another semi dense fog day, 25 trains were delayed but information relating to delayed flights was not available.
However, weather in North West India was expected to clear up with an anticipated steep fall in minimum temperature. As per IMD forecast for 7th and 8th January, both days were going to be cold with dense fog conditions. Minimum temperature was going to hover between 8 and 9 degrees while maximum temperature was going to be in the range of 18 to 19 degrees.
RAIN RAIN COME AGAIN
As regards long awaited, badly needed rainfall, as mentioned above, there was nothing on 6th January despite cloud cover. Now rain has been predicted for 11th and 12th January not only in Delhi but also in NCR, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Western U.P. In addition, isolated Hailstorms are not ruled out during this period. Rain as in the immediate past will no doubt clear up pollutants from atmosphere but more cold wave will also follow. Impact of such conditions will be swiftly on Lohri and Makar Sankranti festivals.
No respite is expected even till 14th or 15th January in this way in the entire NCR and neighbouring states.
Conclusion
We fondly realize that life was very simple and devoid of worries when there was nothing called AQI, Climate change, air or water pollution. There was no system of forecasting weather three or four decades ago. Before going to bed, one would never talk of weather nor plan the next day by looking at sky. As school students in early Seventies, we never knew who was District Magistrate or was there an authority to check pollution or its threshold. Once a year, declaration of a rainy day in school would take us to seventh heaven. For this also we had to go to school, getting fully wet on the way.
As time has passed by, struggle for life has begun and new challenges have been emerging. Apart from contribution of natural agents in causing either water or air pollution, man made reasons are more to blame as these can be contained but due to our whims and fancies are left to become dominant.
Will cool, soothing wind with azure blue sky soon become a reality ? While all of us see, hear and feel everything, who will dare to bell the cat for an unbiased sincere work in the current deteriorating weather scenario ? Seeing rampant dust and water pollution and inhaling of toxic air for days together, was never thought of or expected. AQI goes up and comes down but we seem to be still in a debating and discussing mode.
To make matters worse, HMPV Virus has also arrived from China to India and nine child cases have been identified already. It has been a tough, long, challenging and very severe winter so far. We need, therefore, to take sustainable and viable steps soon for common good, so that interest of future generations is adequately protected.
(Alok k.Shrivastava is former Chief Secretary, Sikkim)