Post-Raisi Middle East and India
India has maintained a delicate balance in its relations with Iran and other key players like the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. A shift in Iran’s political landscape could force India to recalibrate its foreign policy, potentially straining its relationships with these other nations
The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi would significantly affect regional and global geopolitics, especially at such a crucial time when Iran was emerging as an indispensable partner in the regional geopolitical and strategic equations. Raisi, a conservative hardliner, had arisen as a crucial figure in shaping Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. His unexpected death in a helicopter crash on 19 May 2024 could lead to a period of political instability in Iran, which may have profound implications not only for the Middle East but far beyond as well. For India, a fast-rising Asian Power with deep economic and strategic interests in Iran, the impact would be particularly significant.
Since Iran has already expressed its suspicions against Israel and the US in the deadly helicopter crash killing President Raisi, the Hamas-Israel conflict which had recently seemed to ebb might instead escalate into a larger conflict which might spread beyond the Middle East.
Internally, Raisi’s death would likely trigger a power struggle within Iran’s political elite. The country’s complex power structure, which includes the Supreme Leader, the President, and various factions within the military and the clergy, would face a period of uncertainty. This could result in a temporary paralysis of decision-making processes and a potential shift in policies depending on Raisi’s successor. If a more moderate or reformist leader emerges, there could be a shift towards greater engagement with the West. Conversely, a hardline successor might double down on confrontational policies. Even as some indications are emerging about the likely successor, what is not so clearly visible yet may be of bigger concern.
Regional and Global Ramifications
In the Middle East, Iran plays a pivotal role in regional politics, influencing events in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. Any instability within Iran would reverberate through these conflict zones, potentially altering the balance of power. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, which view Iran as a major adversary, would closely monitor the situation, potentially adjusting their strategies accordingly.
Beyond the Middle East too, Iran is a major player in the global energy market, and political instability there could affect oil prices. Any disruption in Iran’s oil production or export capabilities would have immediate consequences for global energy supply chains. Countries reliant on Iranian oil, such as China and India, would need to seek alternative sources, which could drive up prices and create economic pressures.
India’s Strategic Position
For India, the implications of Raisi’s death are multifaceted. India has cultivated a strong economic and strategic partnership with Iran, primarily through energy imports and infrastructure projects like the Chabahar port, which is crucial for India’s access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
India imports a significant portion of its oil from Iran. Political instability in Iran could disrupt these imports, forcing India to diversify its energy sources. Narendra Modi, who will most probably continue to be India’s Prime Minister after the current elections, and his team of experts on geopolitical will have to sit up and readjust India’s diplomatic relations in the light of emerging options. This could lead to increased costs and logistical challenges.
The development of the Chabahar Port is a cornerstone of India’s regional strategy, providing a critical link to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. Any disruption in or in the Gulf or vicinity of Iran could delay this project, affecting India’s strategic interests in the region. Any disruption or threat to the strategically vital project of Chabahar Port may drag India in to defend its strategic interests in the region.
So far, India has maintained a delicate balance in its relations with Iran and other key players like the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. A shift in Iran’s political landscape could force India to recalibrate its foreign policy, potentially straining its relationships with these other nations.
A stable and cooperative Iran is crucial for India’s aspirations as a regional power. India’s prime concern is that instability in Iran could create a power vacuum that might pull in other regional actors, diminishing India’s influence and shifting power matrices.
Globally, Raisi’s death could lead to newer diplomatic initiatives. The United States and European countries might see this as an opportunity to re-engage with Iran on issues such as the nuclear deal. India, with its historical ties and strategic interests, could play a mediating role in such negotiations, enhancing its global diplomatic standing.
No matter how the current confusion settles down within Iran, the death of President Ebrahim Raisi would undoubtedly usher in a period of uncertainty in Iran, with wide-ranging implications for regional stability and global geopolitics. For India, this scenario would necessitate a careful reassessment of its strategies, both in terms of immediate economic interests and long-term strategic goals. By navigating these challenges deftly, India has the potential to not only safeguard its own interests but also to emerge as a key player in the reshaping of regional and global dynamics.
[Karan Kharb is an Indian Army veteran who has been an instructor at the Indian Military Academy and served in the Special Forces. Author of five best-selling books, he is associated with India’s eminent think tanks and has addressed audiences at regional and national levels.
He managed a Rehab NGO in Gujarat soon after the devastating earthquake in 2001; and was the founder Director of Jana Shikshan Sansthan (JSS) Kutch]
