Reaching the Goal of Clean Energy
Any way to global net-zero emissions will have to go through India due to the country’s energy utilization, its projected demand growth, and the commensurate growth in greenhouse gas emissions. India’s development trajectory will also affect countries in the Global South that are trying to provide reliable, secure, and affordable energy to their citizens while cutting off emissions. India’s policymakers and companies can use many policy and finance levers to deliver the energy required to fulfill the nation’s economic aspirations while mitigating the impacts of climate change.
A significant analysis titled “India’s energy transition” by Atul Arya, Chief Energy Strategist, S&P Global Commodity Insights and Gauri Jauhar, Executive Director, Energy Transitions and Clean Tech Consulting, S&P Global Commodity Insights has appeared in the journal Look Forward, produced by the S&P Global cross-divisional Research Council.
According to the analysis, how India meets its growing energy demand and changes its primary energy mix over the coming decade will substantially affect global energy markets and help determine if, and when, global emissions needs are reached.
India’s per capita energy consumption remains just one-tenth that of the United States, which is the third largest consumer of energy globally. S&P Global Commodity Insights expects the country’s total energy demand to double by 2050. India’s efforts to fulfill its increasing energy needs while lowering emissions will be closely watched as a model for other economies.
The analysis appears in the journal Look Forward, produced by the S&P Global cross-divisional Research Council. The latest issue, focusing on India, can be found here: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/special-editorial/look-forward/look-forward-volume-3-2023
Securing Reliable, Affordable and Sustainable Energy Supplies
Part of the equation to securing reliable, affordable and sustainable energy supplies to meet to meet ndia’s growing energy demand will be reducing dependency on energy imports, the analysis says. Oil imports are expected to exceed 90% of the country’s demand by 2030. Natural gas imports are expected to surpass 60% of demand that same year.
The analysis identifies several opportunities to reduce import dependence of oil and gas, including:
– The potential to boost output from Indian oil and gas fields using secondary and tertiary recovery technologies, as well as the application of new technologies such as machine learning and data analytics
– Acquisition of international oil and gas assets
– Further accelerating deployment of renewables (solar photovoltaic installations have already grown 12-fold in India since 2015 while wind power capacity has doubled) to help meet growing electricity demand while keeping prices affordable and cutting emissions
– Developments in hydrogen such as the Indian government’s National Green Hydrogen Mission, which aims to produce 5 million metric tons of the fuel annually by 2030
Even as emissions in India continue to increase over the next decade with the focus on energy security and affordability, several pathways exist for reducing emissions while also pursuing those priorities, Arya and Jauhar write. Such pathways include:
– Phasing out aging and inefficient coal plants while improving newer plants to meet more stringent emissions standards
– Establishing a domestic clean energy supply chain to support the deployment of renewables
– Greater decarbonization of the transport sector via electrification of two-and-three wheelers as well as mass transit
– Energy efficiency initiatives aimed at industry, buildings, and transportation
The longer-term path towards India’s target of net zero by 2070 may not be simple, but there are several technology, finance, and policy levers that India’s policymakers and companies can utilize to deliver the energy needed to meet the nation’s economic aspirations while mitigating the effects of climate change, the analysis says.
– Policy alignment and coordination among multiple stakeholders, including the government, private sector, and the public
– Growing energy financing, along with additional work for capacity building, improving systemic efficiency, and increasing investor confidence
– Strengthening state-owned companies and national champions to become more agile in order to cultivate overseas partnerships, attract capital and access state-of-the-art technology
– Accelerate market orientation reforms to ensure a robust, market-led energy system
– Improving alignment and coordination between the center and state governments to accelerate decision-making